Iran – A Rising Opportunity

Ever heard of a country with too many highly educated people? More than two-thirds of the 80 million population are under the age of 35, with literacy rate stands above 93% and 0.1% of the population living below the poverty line of 1.9$ per day. Rightfully so, when the country was cut-off from the World – it made the right choice, to invest in education: 20% of government spending and 5% of GDP goes to education. It bears a striking similarity to Lee Kuan Yew Master Plan of investing in education, one of his conscious decisions that engineered Singapore’s economic miracle.

With 10 percent of the world's proven oil reserves and 15 percent of its gas reserves, Iran remains a dormant energy superpower, largely due to isolation from global markets. With the lifting of trade sanctions in January 2016, few financial institutions are extending lines of credit, and FDI inflow has been timid, but not great as expected.

Since the mid-1990s, Iran has increased its economic cooperation with other developing countries in "south-south integration" including Syria, India, China, South Africa, Cuba and Venezuela. Iran's trade with India passed $13 billion in 2007, an 80% increase within a year – but there is a significant trade imbalance, with India accounting for 9.9% of Iranian exports but with little to negligible imports into Iran. China on the other hand, maintains a healthy trade balance, with significant imports and exports between the two countries. 

With aviation and transportation sectors badly needing rejig and many other sectors remaining outdated in terms of technology or capabilities – Iran presents a rising opportunity. China has been quick to realize the potential, and has connected Iran by Train link last year – starting in China’s eastern province of Zhejiang, the train link passes through Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, into Iran. This will see the exchange of goods and services potentially reaching the threshold of 600$ Billion. 

India, is not far behind – helping Iran develop the strategic port of Chabahar. The location plays a vital role and is of great significance, merely 72 KM away from Pakistan’s Chinese funded deep sea port at Gwadar, Chabahar port not only provides access to Central Asia (with a marine distance of 353 nautical miles to Dubai and 843 nautical miles to Mumbai) but also is the only Iranian port with direct access to the Indian Ocean. The highly congested Bandar Abbas port is not a deep water port and cannot handle the 250,000 ton ocean-going cargo ships. At present, such ships dock in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the cargo is transferred to smaller 100,000 ton ships for onward shipment to Iran. This makes Iran dependent on the UAE for shipments and represents a loss of revenue, not to mention making UAE the biggest trading partner of Iran by volumes. Unlike Bandar Abbas, Chabahar has the ability to handle standard cargo ships.

Indian Government and Indian businesses can do much more – the majority of discourse around Indo-Iran relations revolves around Chabahar, and does not indicate the true economic potential. Iran has encouraging business opportunities in energy, infrastructure, healthcare, retail, airports and aviation, mining and water sectors. A program similar to UK’s trade department – which offers financial cover to companies interested to do business in Iran, would help Indian businesses set up shop in Iran. In July, French oil giant Total committed $1 billion for developing the country’s largest oil field, and car manufacturer Peugeot is stepping up its local presence, and produce over 200,000 cars in Iran. India should encourage automotive industries to explore marketing tie-ups with local entities to expand their market footprint.

There are challenges too, corruption is still a major hurdle, with Transparency International ranking Iran at 131 out of 175. After Modi’s visit, it did not take Tehran long to dissociate from the idea of exclusive Indian engagement in Chabahar Port, and voice out invitations to Pakistan and China to participate. Iranians are thorough when it comes to negotiations and in striking the right balance – one of the main reasons, they are able to hold onto their own, despite adverse international relations. While the moderate Rouhani and his government, though powerful, seem eager to open up to the world, internal political challenges exist. Khamanei and the very powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps that he controls, also have large interests in the country’s economy. 

There are reasons India should look beyond Oil, Saffron or Carpets from Iran and see the true potential. At present, India is not fully cognizant of Iran’s strategic importance. From the last decades of the 19th century to the mid-20th century, India and Iran have a shared history, from Parsis long standing contributions to Indian Economy and Culture; to one of three Kendriya Vidyalaya Schools outside India, in Tehran, running since 1930s – there is enough cultural understanding and people-to-people contact since ages. It is time India should change from remaining marginally engaged based on needs to an evolved partnership with Iran – India needs to rethink about its approach with Iran

-  Abhijith Jayanthi 

Delhi Durbar: Hegemony of Suitable Truth & Convenient Praise

Greatness is not what reason promises – it is achieved by wandering into the unknown to discover; sometimes with no one left to clap by our side, only for others to realize value of the discovery much later – sometimes after discoverer sinks into the oblivion. 

During the summer of 1990, PV Rao, an under-celebrated veteran of Indian polity, was preparing to retire – when he had to step into the top job in the country. Consequences of terrible economic management by Rajiv Gandhi, meant Rao had the ugly job to tackle the balance of payments crisis. Gulf war and low credibility of Indian leadership then, gave little support to Mr. Rao. 

With amazing tact – PV Rao not only completed a full term but also ushered in a new era for Indian economy. Yet, pseudo liberal brigade of Indian polity chose to highlight Dr. M Singh, the then union finance minister for the turnaround. It is a sad but just indictment, of our pseudo liberal Indian polity for robbing the real victor and celebrating their convenient choice.

Today, we see a reverse thematic criticism: Prime Minister Modi alone, with limited to no role of others within the government or otherwise, is responsible to celebrate their nervous glee. Modi’s leadership meant hard but necessary choices – what India needs to do to be a thriving economy.

Delhi Durbar wants to sing the tune of suitable truth and convenient praise. Reforms will see costs borne upfront, with rewards coming in later. With more than necessary intervention of government through the decades of mis-rule, Indian economy remains inchoate. It is like an overgrown start-up – not willing to learn about its weaknesses. We as a nation, have too many grey haired (wo)men advising us. It is time, we stop listening to the noise, and act. To lessen the dependency of economy on government – in PM Modi’s own words: Government has no business to be in business; the fragility of our economy to government interventions should be arrested. Dependencies on external stimulus from the government or otherwise, is a clear sign of bad governance, where politics trumps economics. Government’s role should be regulatory, to facilitate necessary checks and balances – GST is one step in that direction. 

We as a nation survived centuries of loot and plunder with patience – which continued for decades well after gaining independence; it is but important we begin to see the bigger picture, and not let go our perseverance. Quoting Muhammad Ali, “It isn't the mountains ahead to climb that wear you out; it's the pebble in your shoe.” – Prime Minister Modi will have to consider, necessary interventions to address the short run spill-over effects on SMEs and creation of jobs due to GST implementation.

To quote from the famous Apple Ad: To ones who see things differently, while some may see them as the crazy ones, we see genius. Because, people who are crazy enough to think that they can change the world, are the ones who do – Prime Minister Modi, is the first politician in our history, to undertake reforms by choice, and not because of compulsion. It is time we let go our fancy to celebrate ancestry, and start celebrating the genius of passionate wo(men). They are invariably pushing us forward, and are changing our world for good. 

- Abhijith Jayanthi